30 Mayıs 2012 Çarşamba

Poll Watch: Florida Opinion Research 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

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Florida Opinion Research 2014 Gubernatorial Poll
  • Charlie Crist (D) 48.1%
  • Rick Scott (R) 34.1%
  • Other 5.0%
  • Don't know/Refused 12.8%
Survey of 802 likely voters was conducted May 23-25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.46 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:
Republicans stick with Scott at 60.3%, but the current governor garners only 21.6% of the unaffiliated vote. The pop factor is that former governor Crist grabs 74.2% of the Democratic vote and 52.2% of the unaffiliated vote.

A few other breakdowns of interest:

African-Americans - 88.1% support Crist.

Whites - 43.4% Crist, 39.4% Scott.

Hispanic - 37.9% Scott, 35.3% Crist, while 23% stated 'do not know.'

Gender: Crist leads men, 45% to Scott's 39%. Women, 51% support Crist to Scott's 30%.

As for age breakdowns, Crist led all categories: 18-29: 52% to 27%; 30-44: 44% to 38%; 45-59: 55% to 28%; 60+: 45% to 38%.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Missouri 2012 Senatorial Survey

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PPP (D) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
  • Todd Akin (R) 45% [43%] (43%) {45%} [44%]
  • Claire McCaskill (D) 44% [43%] (45%) {46%} [45%]
  • Claire McCaskill (D) 44% [43%] (43%) {45%} [45%] (45%)
  • Sarah Steelman (R) 44% [43%] (42%) {42%} [42%] (44%)
  • Claire McCaskill (D) 46% [43%] (46%) {47%}
  • John Brunner (R) 44% [43%] (37%) {41%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Sarah Steelman 30% [22%] (23%) {26%} [22%] (22%) / 26% [24%] (25%) {22%} [22%] (19%) {+4%}
  • Todd Akin 21% [19%] (18%) {18%}[20%] / 21% [28%] (26%) {21%} [24%] {0%}
  • John Brunner 20% [18%] (7%) {8%} / 23% [18%] (19%) {19%} {-3%}
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
  • Approve 40% [42%] (43%) {46%} [46%] (43%)
  • Disapprove 50% [49%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (44%)
Survey of 602 Missouri voters was conducted May 24-27, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Party ID: 35% [39%] (33%) {37%} [38%] (36%) Democrat; 33% [35%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (39%) Republican; 33% [27%] (30%) {25%} [25%] (26%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% [27%] (27%) {32%} [27%] Moderate; 25% [22%] (26%) {25%} [27%] Somewhat conservative; 21% [20%] (23%) {20%} [22%] Very conservative; 14% [21%] (14%) {14%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 9% [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 1, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 3-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Missouri 2012 Republican Senatorial Primary Survey

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PPP (D) Missouri 2012 GOP Senate Primary Poll
  • Sarah Steelman 28% [32%] (40%)
  • John Brunner 25% [18%] (6%)
  • Todd Akin 23% [23%] (29%)
  • Another candidate 4%
  • Undecided 20% [28%] (26%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • John Brunner 38% [29%] (8%) / 9% [7%] (10%) {+29%}
  • Todd Akin 34% [33%] (31%) / 10% [8%] (12%) {+24%}
  • Sarah Steelman 39% [39%] (32%) / 16% [13%] (14%) {+23%}
Survey of 430 GOP primary voters was conducted May 24-27, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Party ID: 71% Republican; 28% Independent/Other; 1% Democrat. Political ideology: 39% [38%] Somewhat conservative; 39% [40%] Very conservative; 17% [15%] Moderate; 5% [4%] Somewhat liberal; 1% [3%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Daily Presidential Tracking Survey

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Rasmussen (R) 2012 Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
  • Barack Obama 45%
  • Mitt Romney 45% 
Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted May 27-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.


  • Barack Obama 45% [46%] (44%) {45%} [44%] (44%) {45%} [46%] (46%) {47%} [46%] (46%) {44%} [45%] (46%) {45%} [44%] (42%) {43%} [45%] (44%) {44%} [45%] (46%) {47%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [46%] (45%) {46%} [47%] (47%) {45%} [44%] (44%) {44%} [45%] (47%) {45%} [45%] (43%) {45%} [44%] (44%) {43%} [44%] (45%) {45%} [45%] (46%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {45%} [44%] (44%) {45%} [46%] (46%) {46%} [44%] (45%) {45%} [46%] (43%) {44%} [45%] (47%) {47%} [46%] (46%) {48%} [49%] (46%) {45%} [44%] (45%) {43%} [42%] (43%) {45%} [48%] (49%) {48%} [45%] (47%) {47%} [48%] (46%){44%} [44%] (43%) {45%} [46%] (48%) {49%} [47%] (45%) {46%} [47%] (49%) {48%} [47%] (47%) {49%} [48%] (48%) {49%} [50%] (48%) {47%} [48%] (49%) {47%}[46%] (45%) {46%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (46%) {45%} [46%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (44%)
  • Mitt Romney 45% [45%] (45%) {45%} [45%] (45%) {44%} [45%] (44%) {44%} [44%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (47%) {47%} [48%] (50%) {50%} [49%] (49%) {49%} [47%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (45%) {44%} [46%] (47%) {48%} [45%] (46%) {48%} [49%] (48%) {47%} [46%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (47%) {46%} [47%] (48%) {48%} [48%] (45%) {45%} [45%] (44%) {44%} [44%] (46%) {47%} [47%] (45%) {45%} [45%] (46%) {45%} [46%] (44%) {44%} [43%] (45%) {44%} [45%] (44%) {44%} [45%] (46%) {44%} [43%] (46%) {47%} [46%] (45%) {46%} [48%] (48%) {47%} [44%] (42%) {42%} [43%] (43%) {42%} [42%] (43%) {45%} [44%] (45%) {43%} [43%] (41%) {39%} [41%] (43%) {42%} [43%] (41%) {42%} [43%] (43%) {42%} [42%] (41%) {42%} [40%] (42%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {43%} [44%] (45%) {45%} [43%] (42%) {41%} [43%] (42%) {42%} [43%] (43%) {43%} [43%] (44%)
Results from the poll conducted May 26-28, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 25-27, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 24-26, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 23-25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 22-24, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 21-23, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 20-22, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-21, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 18-20, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-19, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 16-18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 15-17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 12, 14-15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 11-14, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 10-12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 8-10, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-8, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 5-7, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 4-6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-5, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 1-3, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 2, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 29 - May 1, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 28-30, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 27-29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 26-28, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 25-27, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 24-26, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 23-25, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 22-24, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 21-23, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 20-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-21, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 18-20, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 17-19, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 16-18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 14-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-14, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 11-13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 10-12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 8-10, 2012 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted April 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 6-8, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 5-7, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 4-6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-5, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 2-4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 1-3, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 2, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 30 - April 1, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 29-31, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 28-30, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 27-29, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 26-28, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 25-27, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-26, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 23-25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 22-24, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 21-23, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 20-22, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 19-21, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 18-20, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 17-19, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 16-18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 14-16, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 13-15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 11-13, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-12, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 9-11, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 8-10, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-8, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-7, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 4-6, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 3-5, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 2-4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 1-3, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 29 - March 2, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 28 - March 1, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 27-29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 26-28, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 25-27, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 24-26, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 23-25, 2012 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 22-24, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 21-23, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 20-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 19-21, 2012 are in square brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 18-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 17-19, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 16-18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 15-17, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 14-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 13-15, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 12-14, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 10-12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 9-11, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 8-10, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-8, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 5-7, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 3-5, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 2-4, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 1-3, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 2, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 30 - February 1, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 29-31, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-30, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 26-28, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 24-26, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 23-25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-23, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 20-22, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 17-21, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Presidential Survey

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Rasmussen (R) 2012 Presidential Poll 

Do you agree with President Obama on just about everything, agree on most important issues, disagree on most important issues, or disagree on just about everything?
  • Agree on just about everything 14%
  • Agree on most important issues 32%
  • Disagree on most important issues 23%
  • Disagree on just about everything 27%
Do you agree with Mitt Romney on just about everything, agree on most important issues, disagree on most important issues, or disagree on just about everything?
  • Agree on just about everything 10%
  • Agree on most important issues 38%
  • Disagree on most important issues 26%
  • Disagree on just about everything 20%
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted May 26-27, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:
Democrats are more closely aligned with their candidate than Republicans. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Democrats agree with Obama on most or all issues. Support for Romney among Republicans is ten points lower at 79%

Thirty-four percent (34%) of Democrats agree with the president on just about everything, but only 19% of Republicans say that about Romney.

However, Romney has the edge among voters not affiliated with either major party. Forty-seven percent (47%) tend to agree with the GOP challenger on most issues while 37% agree with Obama.

Male voters are more likely to agree with Romney, female voters with Obama.

Most voters under the age of 40 share the president’s views. Most voters 40 and older are more likely to agree with Romney.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of conservatives disagree with Obama on the issues, while 87% of liberals disagree with Romney. Moderates are more likely to agree with the incumbent than with his challenger.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Tea Party voters agree with Romney, but 91% disagree with the president. Among union members, 55% agree with Obama, while only 28% agree with the Republican.

26 Mayıs 2012 Cumartesi

how should the Church handle so-called "same-sex marriage" vs. divorce?

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In response to this video (h/t: SJ)
http://m.crosswalk.com/video/why-marriage-defined-only-between-a-man-and-woman.html


A few thoughts:
-God defined it that way, as she notes, "in the beginning".
-God continues to define it that way, as an ideal.
-But in a fallen world, God allowed all sorts of things with respect to marriage-- most notably, "levirate marriage", where polygamy was often commanded.
-So-called "same-sex marriage" is more of a violation of Webster's Dictionary.


Two big "policy" questions:
-What should missionaries do when people come to Christ in a polygamous culture?
-Given Kassian's argument, why haven't believers and the Church said more about the institution and practice of divorce in the last few decades, which causes far, far more damage-- both in its frequency and its damage to children?


I Corinthians 5:9-13 indicates that sin in the church is worse than sin in the world. Matthew 18:6 indicates that two adults messing with children is worse than two adults messing with each other. Justice indicates that people forcefully messing with others is worse than people engaging in mutually agreeable but sinful activities. 

I heard a Sunday School lesson on Luke 15 (a few weeks ago at WRBC) that got me thinking about how we deal with sin differently when it relates to "the other". Part of the genius of Lk 15's trio is getting us to think about "sinners" as lost, valuable and personal. Generalizing about the (theologically conservative) Church's response to divorce, abortion, and homosexuality: Seeking to balance grace and truth, perhaps we handle D better than A better than H, since we're more likely to know someone who has D more than A more than H. 

Which is less consistent with the heart of Jesus: people making less-than-ideal commitments-- or breaking an ideal commitment, backed by an oath to God and promises to others which does harm to the institution of the commitment and often does great harm to children?

nepotism with felonies isn't as bad as a lame joke for which one apologizes

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LEO follows in the footsteps of the C-J (LOL!) with twisted preferences on Rand Paul's bad attempt at a joke (for which he has apologized) vs. Barbara Shanklin firing her grandson. (LEO pointed out that this was his 3rd arrest since being hired and 31st in a decade.)

LEO rated the former as -8 (on a scale of -10 to 10), but the latter as only a -3.
The C-J'ers gave Grover Norquist's mere appearance in a movie a "down arrow", along with Paul's joke. And they gave Shanklin an up arrow.
If the C-J editorialists keep any of their crack pipes at work, maybe the police will find one and use asset forfeiture laws to take the paper away from its owners!
Only a partisan hack or a statist could imagine a world in this way.


Ehrenreich on political and economic markets that harm the poor

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From Barbara Ehrenreich in the C-J...
Individually, the poor are not all that tempting to thieves. Mug a banker and you might score a wallet containing a month’s rent. Mug a janitor and you’ll be lucky to get bus fare to flee the crime scene. But the poor in aggregate provide a juicy target for anyone depraved enough to make a business of stealing from them.

Great point. Markets will arise to engage in trade with groups of people. In relatively rare cases, consumers will be relatively vulnerable to significant fraud or coercion within markets. In debatable cases, consumers may be "irrational" and could potentially be protected from their own bad decisions.

The trick, however, is to rob them in ways that are systematic, impersonal and almost impossible to trace to individual perpetrators.
 Again, this could happen in markets. It certainly happens in govt policy all the time-- as govt works to help special interest groups and imposes subtle costs on the general public, often disproportionately on the poor. 

Ehrenreich criticizes lenders in the high-risk / high rate-of-return niche of credit markets. The market seems quite competitive, but perhaps the consumers are morons. I'd like to extend a lot more dignity to poor people than Ehrenreich, but maybe she's right. 

She critiques employers who "enrich themselves...by taking money from their employees...requiring employees to work hours for which they’re not paid, failing to pay minimum wage and refusing to honor overtime pay differentials." This is an interesting critique, since it hits all workers-- and again, she's implicitly assuming few options for the working poor and/or their irrationality. Maybe the poor are hit harder by this, but why do they stand for it?
Ehrenreich points to local govts and the imposition of fines and fees on defendants-- for drivers license problems, polluting with cigarette butts, modest amounts of pot, putting your feet on a subway seat, etc. 

She wraps up with this: "Before we can 'do something' for the poor, there are some things we need to stop doing to them." I've written a book and a half on this-- as well as numerous articles and blog posts. I couldn't agree with her more. Unfortunately, she advocates many policies that hammer the poor. 

science, reductionism, and order

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From Stephen Barr in First Things...
Since the time of Newton, science has advanced by a strategy rightly called “reductionism.” This method, which explains things by analyzing them into smaller and simpler parts, has yielded a rich harvest of discoveries about the natural world. As a means of analysis, then, reductionism has certainly proven its value. But many wonder whether science is reductive in a more radical and disturbing way—by flattening, collapsing, and trivializing the world....
This tendency to downgrade and diminish reflects a metaphysical prejudice that equates explanatory reduction with a grim slide down the ladder of being. Powerful explanatory schemes reveal things to be simpler than they appear. What simpler means in science is much discussed among philosophers—it is not at all a simple question. But to many materialists it seems to mean lower, cruder, and more trivial. By this way of thinking, the further we push toward a more basic understanding of things, the more we are immersed in meaningless, brutish bits of matter....

At first glance, the history of the cosmos seems to bear this out. Early on, the universe was filled with nearly featureless gas and dust, which eventually condensed to form galaxies, stars, and planets. In stars and supernovas, the simplest elements, hydrogen and helium, fused to make heavier ones, gradually building up the whole periodic table. In some primordial soup, or slime, or ooze on the early earth, atoms agglomerated into larger and more intricate molecules until self-replicating ones appeared and life began. From one-celled organisms, ever more complicated living things evolved, until sensation and thought appeared. In cosmic evolution the arrow apparently moves from chaos to order, formlessness to form, triviality to complexity, and matter to mind.

And that is why, according to philosopher Daniel Dennett, religion has it exactly upside down. Believers think that God reached down to bring order and create, whereas in reality the world was built—or rather built itself—from the ground up. In Dennett’s metaphor, the world was constructed not by “skyhooks” reaching down from the heavens but by “cranes” supported by, and reaching up from, the solid ground.

The history to which the atheist points—of matter self-organizing and physical structures growing in complexity—is correct as far as it goes, but it is only part of the story. The lessons the atheist draws are naive. Yes, the world we experience is the result of processes that move upward. But Dennett and others overlook the hidden forces and principles that govern those processes. In short, they are not true reductionists because they don’t go all the way down to the most basic explanations of reality.

As we turn to the fundamental principles of physics, we discover that order does not really emerge from chaos, as we might naively assume; it always emerges from greater and more impressive order already present at a deeper level. It turns out that things are not more coarse or crude or unformed as one goes down into the foundations of the physical world but more subtle, sophisticated, and intricate the deeper one goes.


Barr moves to a "simple but instructive example of how order can appear to emerge spontaneously from mere chaos through the operation of natural forces": a large number of identical marbles rolling around randomly in a shoe box, but then the box is tilted vs. a typical teenager’s bedroom that is tilted by a huge jack

Louisville heat-related deaths to grow ten-fold in future decades

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From James Bruggers at the C-J...
As many as 19,000 Louisville residents will die of heat-related causes by the end of the century — topping 40 large American cities, according to a new environmental report.
It's good to see Louisville #1 in something, I guess.
The report by the Natural Resources Defense Council environmental group estimates that 39 Louisville residents die per year from problems caused by the heat. That number, it says, will increase to 257 per year by roughly 2050 and 376 per year by the end of the century.
Really...wow! That's quite an increase. Ten-fold growth by the end of the century!
Based on computer modeling, the study assumes government leaders do nothing to stop rising temperatures that many scientists blame on greenhouse gas emissions...
 --> OK, they're assuming (rapidly) rising temperatures and that govt can/will do nothing to stop it. --> What else are they assuming? Obama-like economic policies that stagnate or sack the economy (vs. growing incomes and improved technology to deal with heat). No changes in response to heat by Louisville's population. The Earth will still be around, despite massive global warming.

23 Mayıs 2012 Çarşamba

'If This Had Completely Gone South, He Was in a Position to Disavow'

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Isn't it great being able to have it both ways?
Maybe it’s the fog of war.

Chuck Pfarrer, a former SEAL Team Six assault-element commander, raises serious questions about the official story of Osama bin Laden’s takedown in his new book, “Seal Target Geronimo.”

“The further I got away from the Beltway, the more accurate information I got,” he said.

Pfarrer says it only took the SEALs 90 to 120 seconds -- from landing to the firing the final shot -- to take out bin Laden, far shorter than other accounts have claimed.

He says the forces entered the compound on the third floor via the roof, not from the ground as the official version has said.

And the SEALs never said, “For God and country,” when they shot bin Laden dead.

President Obama’s role, too, was largely inflated.

He was out playing golf only 20 minutes before the raid began.

“If this had completely gone south, he was in a position to disavow,” Pfarrer claimed.
Just imagine how quickly he'd have thrown these guys under the bus. Instead he goes around using bin Laden's death as a campaign tool.

More here.

'I’m Like a Celebrity Back Home'

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Like most of the Occupy Wall Street freaks, this guy is completely delusional.
Henry Perkins is giving Occupy Wall Street the old college try.

The 21-year-old University of Alabama junior has been earning college credits while living in the open-air, crime-riddled frat house of Zuccotti Park.

“I asked my professors and they said to go for it,” Perkins told the Daily News. “They’re living vicariously through me.”

“I learned a lot here,” added Perkins, who arrived in New York by train carrying only a computer, toothbrush, cell phone, some books and a tarp. “I realized that I never want to be in any system, and you can make it work.”

Since joining the protest against corporate excess three weeks ago, Perkins said he’s become the big man on Alabama’s campus while camping out 900 miles away.

He Skypes into class twice a week, listening to lectures and giving students colorful updates from the epicenter of the global movement. And he regularly checks in with his professors.

“I’m like a celebrity back home,” Perkins said.

Even his parents support his odd curriculum. Perkins’ proud mom said she has no problem with her son’s $8,600 in-state tuition being devoted to his immersive research project on Occupy Wall Street.

“I’m sure he’ll learn more in two weeks in New York than in two years in college,” said Danielle Juzan, of Mobile, Ala., who acknowledged that she’s still “worried sick” about her son.

“What impressed us the most was the fact that he was able to negotiate this with his professors.”
His folks impress easily. Imagine how they'll feel if this tool ever manages to get a job.

New York Democrat Yanks Nude Photos Off His Website: 'How Do You Trust Someone Who Posts Naked Pictures of Himself on the Internet?'

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What's the deal with these weirdo Democrats who feel they need to post lewd photos of themselves? OK, this guy says they're art photos, but really, who wants to look at this stuff? Didn't he at least pause to think after the Anthony Weiner fiasco?
Monroe County Legislator Stephen Eckel abruptly removed two nude photos of himself from a personal website on Friday after being questioned about them by a television reporter.

Eckel, 46, a Democrat from Rochester in the midst of a re-election campaign, said in a phone interview that he took the photos of himself in 2000 as a student at the Visual Studies Workshop while working on a master of fine arts degree at The College at Brockport. He received the degree a year later.

The sepia-toned photos, taken with a wide lens at an elevated angle, were full frontal nude shots of Eckel, but were not sexual in nature. He described them as art.

They were part of a portfolio of Eckel's from that time that he said he showcased on the Internet to find photography work and jobs teaching photography. He has periodically taught photography at local colleges since then.

Eckel said he had never been questioned about the appropriateness of the photos until today, when he was contacted by a reporter from 13WHAM-TV, who had learned of the photos from the Monroe County Republican Committee.

"This is nothing more than a Republican stooping to a new low in order to distract the public from the real issues facing Monroe County taxpayers," Eckel said. "These were taken 10 years ago as part of a portfolio that helped me earn a master's of fine arts. Clearly, they have nothing to do with my service in my district."

Eckel said he removed the photos because they would "deflect attention from the true issues of the campaign." Asked if he would post them again after the campaign, he said that would be something he would have to consider.

Tony Micciche, who is challenging Eckel for the seat in the 26th District — which covers parts of Rochester, Gates and Greece — said such photos, even as artistic works, show poor judgment.

"How do you trust someone who posts naked pictures of himself on the Internet?" Micciche asked. "He's an elected official. He should be held to a higher standard."
The New York Post has one of the shots here.

Update: Also posted at the new and improved JWF.

OWS Animals Getting Free Healthcare

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No, not the two-legged animals.
Dogged supporters of Occupy Wall Street are getting some free medical care — thanks to volunteer veterinarians at Zuccotti Park.

Protesters’ pets - including pooches, cats and rats - can receive check-ups once a week from a ragtag band of animal caretakers doling out shots and deworming and flea treatments.
They may want to also deworm and delouse the protesters.
A supporter of the Occupy movement, Barksy said he started volunteering when he saw a need man’s best friends were among the 99% protesting at the park.

"I supported OWS right from the beginning," he said. "On the second night I realized there were a lot of animals here. I figured the best way I could participate would be giving my skills."

We've Moved

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We hit our five year anniversary this past weekend and it's been a nice run here.

Now we'll be blogging at a new home. Be sure to bookmark and update any links if you've been so kind to link us in the past.

A feed is available here as well as a new Twitter link.

This site will still live on but all new content will be at the new place, where we'll have feature posts, blog items, headlines and links to other sites around the blogosphere.

Thanks to John E. for helping to get things up and running and thanks to everyone who's visited and linked since we started up back in November 2006.

17 Mayıs 2012 Perşembe

We're Back and ready to Rank... New Republican Rankings for August 7, 2007... Where do they stand?

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Well it's been a while and definitely a long time since the last promised update in rankings. Most of you already know the major changes that have taken place since the last ranking came out. Just for a brief overview of the two biggest happenings...
- John McCain had a major meltdown in his campaign when three top campaign leaders, including the Campaign Manager and the Lead Strategist resigned from the campaign.
- Jim Gilmore dropped out of the race and no one has really missed him.

Now for the good stuff...


Republican Presidential Candidate Rankings as of August 7, 2008 (Pre-Ames Straw Poll)

1. Mitt Romney
Well Mitt's use of the almighty dollar puts him at the front of the pack in Iowa and for that case in the race itself. Romney has made sure he is not unknown going into the straw poll. But is Mitt really how Iowa wants? Polls have shown that Romney's message has just not spoke loudly in Iowa. Not nearly as much as his name and face. Lets face the facts, Mitt Romney cleans up well and is an extremely good public speaker and puts out a great image on television looking like a family man who is just another average American, the only part of that, that will come back to bit him is in the Straw Poll and Caucus the voters get to see the candidates in real life and in real life Mitt does not come off anywhere as good as he does on television. Money and popularity have gotten Romney to the top spot, but it is not likely that he will take Iowa just to the fact that Iowans have through out history filtered the phonies out of the race. And that's all Romney is. A pretty talking head phony.

2. Mike Huckabee
Mike Huckabee has been on an unbelievable tear as of late. It looked as if he was about to take a big hit after the second quarter fundraising figures came out. Huckabee had finished in the bottom 3 of Republicans and it looked like his campaign was about to go into panic mode. H
owever Mike had different plans. Just as the name of his latest book, his campaign has risen From Hope to Higher Ground. After the ABC News debate from Iowa it seems as if Huckabee has an excellent chance at not only placing highly at the straw poll, but even winning the poll in Ames. During the Iowa/ABC News Debate Dr. Frank Luntz (one of the nations top political pollsters) used the new real-time dial technology that let's voters give an immediate feedback to what they think about what the candidate is saying. Dr. Luntz said that Huckabee's numbers went through the roof when attacked the Suadi royal family and their involvement and funding of terrorism with money coming from US oil revenue and that America needs to be independent on energy within 10 years. Read this small portion of a Politico.com article...

"At the session’s start, only one participant picked Huckabee as the candidate he or she wanted to win. Nine chose former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, eight were for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, five were for the absent Fred Thompson, two were for McCain, and the remaining candidates were picked by one or none.
But when it was over, Huckabee had 14 votes, compared with 10 for Romney, three for Giuliani, one for Fred Thompson and one for Rep. Duncan Hunter of California."

Check out the entire article by clicking here.
This is all great news for the Huckabee camp and he is an a great position to be catapulted to the front of the pack after the Iowa Straw Poll this Saturday.

3-t. Rudy Giuliani
The man who started out the campaign as the favorite to sweep through the primaries with out much resistance has had a much rougher time than expected and has fallen from his top spot. He refuses to get down and play primary politics. Giuliani seems to think that meeting voters one on one in Iowa and even on a big scale by way of the Ames Straw Poll and the September YouTube debate is too much work for him and not enough gain. Not only has Giuliani lost hundreds of thousands of potential votes by trying to play primary politics on a national level, he has alienated much of his support in Iowa which is THE most important state in the primaries for Republicans. Does anyone else remember what happened to the last big name candidate who tried to take his campaign to a national level months in advance and then got blown out in the primaries?
It was only four years ago when just that happened to the democrats original favorite, Howard Dean. Dean had money, a popular name, a message that many democrats were in too and so he thought he could skip the entire primary process that has elected our Presidents all through out history and get a seventh month head start on the general election.
I believe Rudy Giuliani will be wishing he would have learned the phrase "If you don't learn history, you are doomed to repeat it." Because it seems like Mayor Giuliani is totally clueless as to what is about to happen to his campaign in the primary states. And that is fail.

3-t. Fred Thompson
Time is running out for Fred Thompson. All depending on how the Ames Iowa Straw Poll turns out he could find himself losing a lot of his popularity. His name being on the ballot may actually hurt him. If he does not finish in the top two and loses to some one who is not Rudy Giulian or John McCain (which is very likely) he will begin to slip as "the candidate everyone wants". If Mike Huckabee wins the Straw Poll it will likely end the chances of Fred Thompson entering the campaign as the favorite. Right now he thrives on being the "true conservative" which is nothing but a myth. A Huckabee win at the Straw Poll would undoubtedly put Mike in the "top tier" and all it would take to find out that Huckabee is much more conservative than Fred is a few minutes on the internet. Not to mention Huckabee beats him out on experience and record. If Fred Thompson wants to be the Republican nominee, he better hope Huckabee has a bad showing at the Ames Straw Poll or he better jump in the race and try to spin his weak record to people. If he does not, his campaign will be nothing but a "what if" by the end of the month.

5. John McCain
As you saw above, McCain's campaign has taken hit, after hit, after hit and it is really starting to show. He has been declared the loser of ever debate, except for the first according to Dr. Frank Luntz, the Fox News pollster mentioned earlier in the rankings. It seems like Immigration (which if you might remember Republican Race '08 predicted it spoiling his chance at winning the nomination) has destroyed his campaign. He too has decided to skip the Iowa Straw Poll this Saturday, but his campaign had no real shot at showing well in the poll and so he backed out to have a reason for his poor showing. He did not fair well in 1999 in the Iowa Straw Poll and that was the beginning of the end of his presidential hopes in '99 and here we are in 2008 and we are near the end of the end of his presidential campaign this year. And once again the Iowa Straw Poll will show how little his support he really has.

6. Tom Tancredo
Who ever thought Tancredo would make it this far? In the last ranking he was ranked dead last behind Jim Gilmore. He has made a surge taking bold stances on not only immigration, but has widened his spectrum to taxes, Congresses high spending and even has a better grip on foreign policy and the War on Terror and Iraq. He has became more and more popular and is now the leader of "the new second tier" and he had an excellent 2nd quarter in fundraising and has used it to get his name out in Iowa. All depending on his showing in the Ames Straw Poll, Congressman Tancredo could be positioning him self as a leading candidate to be the VP nominee.



7. Duncan Hunter
Duncan Hunter has remained a solid name in the "second tier", but he hasn't really picked up a lot of ground. He did not perform well in fundraising and is not really gaining popularity, but he has been staying in about the same place in polls (around 6th-8th)
He has had two great showings at the last two debates and is still impressing and surprising people, but just like all the other candidates he will find out where it has put him in the eyes of the people after the Iowa Straw Poll.




8. Sam Brownback

Brownback has become the red headed step child of the group. He doesn't get any attention and in an attempt to get more attention he has constantly cried about other candidates and has on two attempts, blamed candidates for things they had nothing to do with (most recently the Huckabee camp for a supporters email). He has not been charming nearly as many Iowans as pundits thought he would. Instead he has become a big annoyance for everyone else in the race and has dropped into the attack mode attacking Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee and it has not helped him in the polls at all and according to Dr. Frank Luntz' real-time feedback dials voters have not liked what Sam Brownback has said about some of his fellow candidate and many did not approve of his campaigns attack phone calls to voters regarding Mitt Romney.

9. Tommy Thompson
Mr. Wisconsin is the only man who has remained in his post from the last ranking. Tommy has impressed many people on Health Care, if he would make that the main topic of his campaign he would probably be a lot higher in this ranking, but he has not played his card correctly and here he is, a spot away from dead last and only above Ron Paul.
Thompson has been performing better in the debates, but he still isn't "clicking" with voters and it shows. In most polls he is barely registering and in the ones he has he is no higher than 2%, with the exception of a few where voters mistake him for Fred Thompson.
Tommy's campaign will likely be over a week or two after the Straw Poll.

10. Ron Paul
Well I guess we'll see how many Ron Paul cronies read Republican Race '08! Dr. Paul has lost just about all credibility by resorting to the "neo-conservative" movement and take over of the Republican Party. That phase will end any chance he ever had of pulling an upset. It has been a phrase that has ended many "true conservatives" campaigns all across the nation in many republican states. Fact being you don't call your potential voters a name just about all of them hate to be called. You can not alienate voters and expect to win and Ron Paul has done just that. Alienated Republican voters. You would think a man as educated as Dr. Paul would know how to speak to voters, but yet he doesn't and that lands him in dead-last.


We will update the rankings after the Ames Straw Poll this Saturday. Please check back within the next day or two or subscribe by email (just put your email in the box above to the right and click submit) We will have new articles coming regularly.
To those of you who want to know... I have been moving to my new apartment, in a new state and that has consumed a lot of my time the last month and a half and I have not had a chance to hit the blog on a regular basis.
But Good News... I'M BACK and Republican Race '08 is back to being a regularly updated web site.

Stay tuned for the best coverage on the 2008 Republican Race for the White House!

Campaign Update -- One the beat for Wednesday August 8,2007

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Just a brief update on each campaign three days before the Iowa - Ames Straw Poll.

Mitt Romney - Mitt is still being a victim of Brownback's whine tour through the primary states, Brownback has taken out a two minute television ad attacking Gov. Romney's record on abortion. It has not effected Romney though, he is still on top of the polls in Iowa and has even widened his margin from Giuliani who is trailing behing him in some polls.

Mike Huckabee - Mike is touring Iowa in his new ride, which is currently subject to a naming-contest on his website MikeHuckabee.com and his campaign undoubtedly has the most momentum heading into the Iowa Straw Poll on Saturday. Huckabee also signed up to attend and speak at the Midwest Republican Leadership Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana later this month. Huckabee also saw many kind words from former Speaker of the House and leader of the Republican take-over in 1994 and 1996, Newt Gingrich said Huckabee "Will catch on" Gingrich has a eye on how to win and this could be a little for shadowing of who might be the GOP nominee. Gingrich would not go as far as an endorsement because he will make his final decision on running in October.

Rudy Giuliani - It is not getting any easier for Rudy. In the last week Giuliani has been questioned about his Catholicism and then his own teenage daughter has come out in support of Barack Obama and has publicly influenced her friends to support Barack online on Facebook.

Fred Thompson - Suspicion of Fred jumping in the race is growing higher and higher and just this week Thompson upgraded his website ImWithFred.com which looks like a Presidential campaign if I've ever seen one. Fred will be on the ballot at the Iowa Straw Poll, but will not be speaking at the event. As mentioned in the ranking this week, the results of the poll could effect his chances in joining the race.

John McCain - McCain continues to watch candidates pass him in the polls. Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee have both leaped over McCain since the race started early this year and both Tom Tancredo and Sam Brownback are closing in on him. He has not had hardly anything fall his way in the last month. He will not be participating in the Straw Poll, but his name will be on the ballot. In 1999 he did not do well at all in the Straw Poll when he only pulled in around 5% of the vote. This go around his campaign is in much worse shape and he is not even expected to pull in 5% at the Straw Poll on Saturday.

Tom Tancredo - Congressman Tancredo has been spending his time away from Washington wisely and is another candidate who has been burning up the road. Yesterday his campaign focused on Northwest Iowa and his campaign trail will start to make it's way towards Ames for Saturday. Tancredo has said he faces the reality that if he does not finish in the top half that he will likely not have much of an option to continue. Tancredo said, “I think you do have to be in the top half of the group. I mean I just don't see any way that you can really go forward here. The money starts to dry up. It is the first part of the whittling down process."

Duncan Hunter - Congressman Hunter has been very busy on Capitol Hill working on the case of the two border patrol officers who are serving a "harsh" sentence for basically doing their jobs and he is currently working on a rare Congressional Pardon for them. Hunter's presidential campaign has been pretty quite as of late because of this. We'll see how and if this will effect him in the Straw Poll on Saturday.

Sam Brownback - Brownback has continued his attack campaign towards Mitt Romney and also Mike Huckabee to a lesser degree. Brownback said he thinks he is in a "good" position going into the Straw Poll on Saturday. At a speech in Sioux City he said
“I’ve classified myself all along as a tortoise in this race, and I think we look pretty good. I’ve been crawling and moving forward. I don’t know how it’s going to come out but I do think, particularly on our side of the aisle, the time is set for a dark horse candidate to come forward." If Sam Brownback is a "tortoise" I think I speak for most of use when I say go back into your shell! I do agree with him on one thing, A dark house candiate will come forward, but it will not be Senator Brownback.

Tommy Thompson - Many websites including this one are predicting Tommy Thompson to be the first candidate to drop out after the Straw Poll on Saturday. Like Huckabee, Tancredo, Hunter and Brownback, Tommy Thompson has dumped almost all of his resources into the Iowa Straw Poll and according to his numbers in Iowa polls he should do the worst out of these candidates and will probably finish either 9th or 10th. And if he does, his campaign will be over within the next week and a half.

Ron Paul - Congressman Paul has taken out a few 30 sec. television ads in Des Moines, Sioux City and Cedar Rapids. The ads focus on his fiscal conservative record and push for a return to a drastically smaller government with significantly less power, pulling all troops from Iraq and returning to the constitution. If it were only that easy... Most of Dr. Paul's proposals sound great in theory, but when they are rebutted are shrunk down to ideas that would not work in reality. It will be very interesting to see how Ron Paul fairs in the Straw Poll and it will be a make or break point for the legitimacy of his campaign. He may not drop out of the campaign after a bad showing, but his campaign would lose any credibility it ever had of him winning the Republican nomination. Paul has still not proven he can show well with out his "internet cronies" behind him texting messaging or voting online for him. This will be one of the more interesting story lines on Saturday, either way.

Stay tuned all weekend for Straw Poll Coverage.

Huckabee's Message is Right for South Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, and America

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That quote came from former Governor of South Carolina David Beasley in today's Conference Call with Bloggers with Gov. Mike Huckabee.


We got a chance to actually get in two questions today...
Our first question was... Gov. Huckabee, Sam Brownback has recently launched an aggressive attack campaign on both Mitt Romney and yourself, to a lesser degree. And the Club for Growth has a distorted smear ad out against you. How do you feel about attacking other candidates in politics and what’s your personal opinion on the ad’s out against yourself and Gov. Romney? And do you think running your campaign with more integrity, on a positive message focusing on yourself rather than someone else, is why you have passed Senator Brownback and are doing so well in Iowa?
- Gov. Huckabee said "(Iowan voters) want to hear what’s great about America, not what's bad about another candidate." He said that it's important not to go out against another candidate in your party because “you have to eat your words months down the road if that person gets the nomination and then you have to act like that person is better than toothpaste". He said the he thinks a large part of the reason he has done so well in Iowa, is that Iowans like his positive message that focuses on him and not against another candidate.
Gov. Huckabee also said the attack ads just give further validation that his campaign his gaining huge momentum and that Washington and other candidates are trying to slow him down, but it is not working.
-Gov. Beasley also gave his opinions on the Club for Growths smear ad against Huckabee. "He’s Not a inside the beltway person and that's what they are against him(Huckabee)… that’s why we need a guy like Mike Huckabee" He also said, "Washington is trying to put out a message that America does not want to hear, but Gov. Huckabee is talking about what Americans think is important. The Club for Growth in Washington is not putting out a message like many of the Club for Growth members I know around the country, who have the same message as Gov. Huckabee."

And the second question was a lighter topic...
Gov. Huckabee, after seeing yourself in third in the ABC News/Washington Post poll and winning the debate and blowing away voters according to Dr. Frank Luntz, and even having Speaker Gingrich who is one of the most respected people in the party say everything he said. Have you gotten a chance to take a step back and actually think that you have a good shot of being on that stage in Saint Paul in September accepting the GOP nomination and if so how does that feel?
-He said that he hadn't had time to really think about and the campaign has been so focused at getting every possible vote on Saturday it has been a full steam ahead type deal. He did say that he knows he has to remember it's a long way until next September and he does have to remember that, but he seemed pretty excited about the idea of being on the stage in St. Paul accepting his parties nomination, but hey, who wouldn't?

Gov. Huckabee had stressed early in the debate about how much the people of Iowa like his message saying “We’ve used minimal resources to pass those who are using millions of dollars” and seemed very please with the status of his campaign.
Gov. Beasley said that Mike has out ran the big money candidates by "pounding the pavement in Iowa" and getting his message into every home in Iowa. Not through their TV, but through their door. "He takes the time to give his consistent message and consistent record to all the people in Iowa".

Gov. Huckabee seems very excited about this Saturday and think that "history will be made there". The Huckabee campaign will have a action packed day including two scheduled performances of Capitol Offense "the best band in politics" and also Watermelon for everyone from Mike's hometown of Hope, Arkansas. They will also be giving away a 100+ pound watermelon.

The candidate who currently holds the number two spot in the Republican Race '08 Rankings is looking to have a big day on Saturday.

Stay Tuned for more coverage all week long on the 2007 Ames Iowa Straw Poll.

Republican Candidate Rankings after the Ames Straw Poll

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They just came out, but we were prepared for all scenarios!

1. Mitt Romney
Romney spent an unbelievable amount of money to lock in the win of the straw poll and it worked. He received 31.6% which is just one tenth of a point above what George W. Bush scored in 1999. More importantly than the win, he seems to have made a very good impression on voters Iowa. It seems they like his regular man-"guy's guy" persona. Even though that is not what he is, they have bought into it. He has the top spot and we'll see how this carries into New Hampshire and the oh so important South Carolina primary.



2. Mike Huckabee
We predicted a big day for the Huckabee campaign who had an unbelievable amount of momentum going into Saturday. He came out strong and did not disappoint.
Despite spending less than a 1/6th of the money Mitt Romney had spent in Iowa, Huckabee picked up a little more than half the votes Romney did and that is huge considering the time and money spent by each campaign. Mike definitely knows how to stretch a buck!
If Huckabee doesn't win the nomination he will definitely be the first choice as a running mate and as being the second youngest candidate at 51, he would still have at least a few more opportunities at running for the White House and by then he would have a very recognizable name and a lot more money.



3. Fred Thompson
Today's outcome was not really all that significant to Fred Thompson, however it does start the clock on how much time he will have to get in the race.
With Huckabee finishing in second he will get much more media coverage and more importantly, more money. The main success of Thompson's numbers in the polls have came from the "dissatisfaction of the candidates" and "no real conservative". Those statements were made by voters talking about the so called "big three" in Giuliani, Romney and McCain. Now Huckabee will start to be named as a top tier candidate and he has a far more conservative record and platform than Fred Thompson. If Fred wants to be the GOP nominee he better throw his hat in within the next month. If not, his door will be slammed shut.



4. Rudy Giuliani
Why is Rudy in fourth? Because he just upset a lot of Iowan voters. If there is one thing Iowans can't stand, it's being ignored and made out to be unimportant. It's no secret Rudy is having problems gaining support in the south and when it comes down to him and Mitt, Romney comes off more appealing to southerns. Why does the south matter? South Carolina. Rudy Giuliani will not be able to win the nomination only winning New Hampshire out of the first big three (Iowa-first caucus of in the nation, New Hampshire-first primary in the nation, and South Carolina-the first primary in the south). He did not help himself at all on Saturday. If he does not shore up his weakness in Iowa, he can kiss the nomination good bye.




5. Sam Brownback
While there are no official reports out on it, it is believed that Sam Brownback spent the most money on the straw poll out of the "second tier" candidates and while it was not the most popular, he still had a lot of attractions and catered BBQ at his tent, which begs the question how many votes did Brownback buy?.
Brownback showed that he is still able to reign in the "Christian right", but it will be interesting to see if he continues his attacks on Huckabee and Romney, because those are the two that beat him.
One thing is for sure, after being the original favorite to move up from the second tier, his campaign has certainly not flourished as expected.
(Just another case of how the national media has no idea about what they're talking about)
He now trails Huckabee, has Tancredo right on his tail and Ron Paul might even give him some trouble.



6. John McCain
McCain might have thought it was the right move to skip the straw poll, how ever it
was a mistake. He is regarded a little better in the south, but not by much and he is still no where towards being electable in the south AND he is not looking to well in New Hampshire either. If there is a "top tier", John McCain is certainly not in it. He continues to fall in polls, popular opinion and declining performances in the debates and if you haven't noticed, he continues to fall in the rankings. His campaign has truly fallen apart and he would save a lot of people time and money if he would retire the Straight Talk Express and either stay on Capitol Hill or head back to a 55 and up facility in Arizona.



7. Tom Tancredo
Tom Tancredo continues to show a good bit of momentum himself. He has went from 0%-1% to being right on Sam Brownback's you know what! If he can transform his campaign into an actual Presidential campaign he might be able to set himself up for a cabinet position or who knows, maybe even to be a running mate.
Tancredo has gotten pretty far by a very strong stance on illegal immigration and very solid performances in the last two debates and a very good speech at the straw poll. He is looking more and more like a formidable candidate day by day.



8. Ron Paul
One thing was proven for Ron Paul today. His internet supporter and even grassroots presence at the straw poll did
not turn into real votes.
And might I say... I told you so! Anyone who believed the "Ron Paul Revolution" was going to start today was finally proven that they were living a pipe dream after the votes were tallied. All we saw today was around 800 to 1,000 people march around the campus of Iowa State University embarrassing themselves and the party to a certain extent, on national telivison. Paul did get a little under half the votes that Huckabee got and less than a quarter of what Romney got.
His campaign will not end though. No, the Ron Paul Revolution must move on!



9. Duncan Hunter
Duncan Hunter was the only real candidate that finished behind Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani. This should end his campaign. He has not given any indication as to what he will do know, but the straw poll ended any realistic chances he had to make a run at anything. We will keep you updated as soon as we know the fate of the Hunter campaign. As stated in the rankings from the past week, he had been fairly quite in Iowa due to a very busy two weeks at his real job on Capitol Hill and that did cut into his campaign time in those final two weeks before the straw poll which probably cost him a few hundred votes.



10. Tommy Thompson
If Tommy sticks true to his word, he will end his campaign this week. Possibly, as soon as Monday.
He left the straw poll before the returns came in and has not been reached by any reporters as we know of at this time.
Again, we will keep you updated on the status of his campaign. But it would be awfully hard for him to spin a seventh place finish below Ron Paul.
Gov. Thompson is a good man and I personally wish him the best and would not mind seeing him back as the Secretary of Health in the near future.

What will happen Next?
- Mitt Romney will start to pick up ground in South Carolina and New Hampshie and he will start to plant many more roots in New Hampshire now.

-Huckabee and Brownback will go back to the fundraising trails. They have both proven they have the organizational skills and message to motivate voters. Now they will need money to continue to compete. Especially Huckabee, the straw poll was a huge move shifting momentum fully back to his side, but he will not be able to scape by with another $750,000 quarter. Everyone who "Likes Mike" better start chipping in on the tab!

-Guiliani will have to show the people of Iowa he really cares. Iowa will be vital to him and he has to win back some support.

-Fred Thompson will have to start making his decision. If he waits until late September that very well may be too late. Timing is key and he is officially on the clock.

- Tancredo and Paul both did decent in the straw poll. It was nothing special, but they both did well enough to stay in the race. Ron Paul's campaign will not likely change all that much. However Tom Tancredo's campaign could take on a different look with his stronger than expected showing.

-Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter should both bow out of the race. Tommy is a man of his word and I have no doubt that he will drop out this week, but Hunter never stated any such intentions. We will see his plan within the next few days.