Republican Candidate Rankings after the Ames Straw Poll

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They just came out, but we were prepared for all scenarios!

1. Mitt Romney
Romney spent an unbelievable amount of money to lock in the win of the straw poll and it worked. He received 31.6% which is just one tenth of a point above what George W. Bush scored in 1999. More importantly than the win, he seems to have made a very good impression on voters Iowa. It seems they like his regular man-"guy's guy" persona. Even though that is not what he is, they have bought into it. He has the top spot and we'll see how this carries into New Hampshire and the oh so important South Carolina primary.



2. Mike Huckabee
We predicted a big day for the Huckabee campaign who had an unbelievable amount of momentum going into Saturday. He came out strong and did not disappoint.
Despite spending less than a 1/6th of the money Mitt Romney had spent in Iowa, Huckabee picked up a little more than half the votes Romney did and that is huge considering the time and money spent by each campaign. Mike definitely knows how to stretch a buck!
If Huckabee doesn't win the nomination he will definitely be the first choice as a running mate and as being the second youngest candidate at 51, he would still have at least a few more opportunities at running for the White House and by then he would have a very recognizable name and a lot more money.



3. Fred Thompson
Today's outcome was not really all that significant to Fred Thompson, however it does start the clock on how much time he will have to get in the race.
With Huckabee finishing in second he will get much more media coverage and more importantly, more money. The main success of Thompson's numbers in the polls have came from the "dissatisfaction of the candidates" and "no real conservative". Those statements were made by voters talking about the so called "big three" in Giuliani, Romney and McCain. Now Huckabee will start to be named as a top tier candidate and he has a far more conservative record and platform than Fred Thompson. If Fred wants to be the GOP nominee he better throw his hat in within the next month. If not, his door will be slammed shut.



4. Rudy Giuliani
Why is Rudy in fourth? Because he just upset a lot of Iowan voters. If there is one thing Iowans can't stand, it's being ignored and made out to be unimportant. It's no secret Rudy is having problems gaining support in the south and when it comes down to him and Mitt, Romney comes off more appealing to southerns. Why does the south matter? South Carolina. Rudy Giuliani will not be able to win the nomination only winning New Hampshire out of the first big three (Iowa-first caucus of in the nation, New Hampshire-first primary in the nation, and South Carolina-the first primary in the south). He did not help himself at all on Saturday. If he does not shore up his weakness in Iowa, he can kiss the nomination good bye.




5. Sam Brownback
While there are no official reports out on it, it is believed that Sam Brownback spent the most money on the straw poll out of the "second tier" candidates and while it was not the most popular, he still had a lot of attractions and catered BBQ at his tent, which begs the question how many votes did Brownback buy?.
Brownback showed that he is still able to reign in the "Christian right", but it will be interesting to see if he continues his attacks on Huckabee and Romney, because those are the two that beat him.
One thing is for sure, after being the original favorite to move up from the second tier, his campaign has certainly not flourished as expected. (Just another case of how the national media has no idea about what they're talking about)
He now trails Huckabee, has Tancredo right on his tail and Ron Paul might even give him some trouble.



6. John McCain
McCain might have thought it was the right move to skip the straw poll, how ever it was a mistake. He is regarded a little better in the south, but not by much and he is still no where towards being electable in the south AND he is not looking to well in New Hampshire either. If there is a "top tier", John McCain is certainly not in it. He continues to fall in polls, popular opinion and declining performances in the debates and if you haven't noticed, he continues to fall in the rankings. His campaign has truly fallen apart and he would save a lot of people time and money if he would retire the Straight Talk Express and either stay on Capitol Hill or head back to a 55 and up facility in Arizona.



7. Tom Tancredo
Tom Tancredo continues to show a good bit of momentum himself. He has went from 0%-1% to being right on Sam Brownback's you know what! If he can transform his campaign into an actual Presidential campaign he might be able to set himself up for a cabinet position or who knows, maybe even to be a running mate.
Tancredo has gotten pretty far by a very strong stance on illegal immigration and very solid performances in the last two debates and a very good speech at the straw poll. He is looking more and more like a formidable candidate day by day.



8. Ron Paul
One thing was proven for Ron Paul today. His internet supporter and even grassroots presence at the straw poll did not turn into real votes.
And might I say... I told you so! Anyone who believed the "Ron Paul Revolution" was going to start today was finally proven that they were living a pipe dream after the votes were tallied. All we saw today was around 800 to 1,000 people march around the campus of Iowa State University embarrassing themselves and the party to a certain extent, on national telivison. Paul did get a little under half the votes that Huckabee got and less than a quarter of what Romney got.
His campaign will not end though. No, the Ron Paul Revolution must move on!



9. Duncan Hunter
Duncan Hunter was the only real candidate that finished behind Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani. This should end his campaign. He has not given any indication as to what he will do know, but the straw poll ended any realistic chances he had to make a run at anything. We will keep you updated as soon as we know the fate of the Hunter campaign. As stated in the rankings from the past week, he had been fairly quite in Iowa due to a very busy two weeks at his real job on Capitol Hill and that did cut into his campaign time in those final two weeks before the straw poll which probably cost him a few hundred votes.



10. Tommy Thompson
If Tommy sticks true to his word, he will end his campaign this week. Possibly, as soon as Monday.
He left the straw poll before the returns came in and has not been reached by any reporters as we know of at this time.
Again, we will keep you updated on the status of his campaign. But it would be awfully hard for him to spin a seventh place finish below Ron Paul.
Gov. Thompson is a good man and I personally wish him the best and would not mind seeing him back as the Secretary of Health in the near future.

What will happen Next?
- Mitt Romney will start to pick up ground in South Carolina and New Hampshie and he will start to plant many more roots in New Hampshire now.

-Huckabee and Brownback will go back to the fundraising trails. They have both proven they have the organizational skills and message to motivate voters. Now they will need money to continue to compete. Especially Huckabee, the straw poll was a huge move shifting momentum fully back to his side, but he will not be able to scape by with another $750,000 quarter. Everyone who "Likes Mike" better start chipping in on the tab!

-Guiliani will have to show the people of Iowa he really cares. Iowa will be vital to him and he has to win back some support.

-Fred Thompson will have to start making his decision. If he waits until late September that very well may be too late. Timing is key and he is officially on the clock.

- Tancredo and Paul both did decent in the straw poll. It was nothing special, but they both did well enough to stay in the race. Ron Paul's campaign will not likely change all that much. However Tom Tancredo's campaign could take on a different look with his stronger than expected showing.

-Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter should both bow out of the race. Tommy is a man of his word and I have no doubt that he will drop out this week, but Hunter never stated any such intentions. We will see his plan within the next few days.